My vote for the foggiest assertion Antarctica Email List of the pandemic to date is that the U.S. has an abysmally high number of COVID-19 cases more than 29 million as of March 8, 2021 because of testing. “If you don’t test you don’t have any cases former President Donald Trump said during a televised. White House roundtable on June 15, 2020. “If we stopped testing right now. we have very few cases if any. I wonder how many people who heard that had the same first thought as I did: Correlation is not causation. This isn’t to say that correlation the idea that two or more things are associated in some way isn’t valuable. Indeed there is big money in correlation. In order to peddle subscriptions Pandora doesn’t need to know what causes people.
The third and highest rung on Pearl’s causation
To bulk up its sales Amazon doesn’t need to know what causes people who buy a Paleo diet book to also gulf email list buy beef jerky. Though associations gleaned from big data drive recommendation engines and bolster corporate revenues they have their limitations. Imagine trying to control a viral pandemic by refusing to test people for the virus. The passive observation of data has limited value because as Judea Pearl reminds readers several times in The Book. The New Science of Cause and Effect data is profoundly dumb. Data can tell you that the people who took a medicine recovered faster than those who did not take it. They can’t tell you why writes the director of UCLA’s Cognitive Systems Lab. Maybe those who took the medicine did so because they could afford. It and would have recovered just as fast without it.
This is a brain twister, because you can’t go back
The third and highest rung on Pearl’s causation ladder is counterfactuals. Pursuing causation at this level means determining what would have happened if your company had done something in the past. For instance, what would revenues be today if you had cut prices by 10 percent a year ago? This is a brain twister, because you can’t go back and cut prices a year ago, but being able to answer counterfactual queries is essential to scenario planning, among other activities. Pearl describes its benefits as “flexibility, the ability to reflect and improve on past actions, and, perhaps even more significant, our willingness to take responsibility for past and current actions. “But in either case, virtual or real, and unlike with association, which machines can determine on their own, intervention requires the creation of a causal model to determine what effect a 10 percent price hike will have on revenues.